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Which states will drive India’s next round of solar demand?

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The pace of new tender announcements and completed auctions has slowed down significantly in the last year (-68% and -59% respectively). Southern states have frontloaded capacity buildout – Andhra Pradesh (installed plus tendered capacity of 74% as against March 2022 target), Telangana (70%), Karnataka (69%) – and are bound to slow down. Amongst other large states, Maharashtra and Gujarat, like many others, have surplus power availability and remain unenthusiastic to large solar procurement programs. Some states that have completed auctions with prices of INR 4.00-5.50/kWh in the last 6-12 months are refusing to sign PPAs creating uncertainty in the market; Visibility for new tenders has dropped sharply because of surplus power supply in most parts of the country; Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh could be the two major demand drivers for solar power in the coming years; Rewa and Kadappa tender results have given new food for thought to policy makers, DISCOMs, project developers and investors. Greenfield solar power at current prices of INR 3.00- 3.50 (US 5¢)/ kWh should create strong demand pull in the medium-to-long term. But in the near term, it is leading to buyer’s remorse for projects already built and under development. In particular, states that have… Read More »

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